Changelog — GameDay Analytics

changed

Power ratings recalibrated (game model v1.1) NFL

Team power ratings are now calibrated and validated out of sample: a one-point rating gap now predicts a one-point margin. Efficiency regularisation and the market window were re-tuned against real margins and closing spreads, and the blend weights are fitted weekly by regression with the market component capped so the model can still disagree with it. Ratings sit closer to market consensus; overall accuracy is on par with the previous version. Power Rankings reflect the new scale, and the weekly refinement report includes a calibration scorecard.

fixed

Game model history and performance restored NFL

Pick History and Model Performance now show graded results. A grading bug had left every pick since Week 1 ungraded; Weeks 1-3 are now graded, with closing line value.

changed

New team picker on the Players page NFL

The team filter now opens a picker with every team's logo and name, grouped by division, instead of a long list of abbreviations. Also fixed Arizona appearing twice in the team list.

changed

Players page filters update instantly NFL

Changing season, position, team or min games on the Players page now updates the list right away, and search updates as you type. The URL keeps your filters so views can be bookmarked or shared.

added

Daily practice reports on player profiles NFL

Player profiles have a new Practice tab: the official practice report for every week (DNP / Limited / Full for each practice day), the injury, the game designation and whether he played. A badge next to the player name shows his current practice status while he is on this week's report. Day-by-day history starts with Week 4; earlier weeks show the final weekly report.

added

Player News tab NFL

Player profiles now have a News tab: the latest injury, practice-status, game-recap and depth-chart updates plus ESPN articles mentioning the player, refreshed every 15 minutes while you browse. We keep every update we see, so each player's news history grows over the season.

added

Tackles model: player profiles and pick breakdowns NFL

On the Defensive Tackles board, click a player name for his profile: last 10 games against the closing line, hit rates at today's line, snap share and where he lines up, the matchup, and how accurate the model has been on him. Click a pick card for why the model likes it: projection vs line, model vs book probability, the full range of expected outcomes, and the five factors that moved the projection most, in plain English.

fixed

Tackles picks appear as soon as lines post NFL

The Defensive Tackles model now re-prices a game as soon as the sportsbook posts or moves its tackles lines, instead of waiting for the next morning run. Sunday picks now show up on the board Saturday as the lines go up.

changed

Interceptions board: clean-game columns relabelled NFL

Clean L5 and Clean Szn count games with zero interceptions (e.g. 0 of 2) and show the interceptions thrown underneath.

added

Interceptions board NFL

New page for QB interceptions props: Hard Rock line and prices, market under %, QB INT% and turnover-worthy-play rate, zero-INT games, opposing defense INT rate and drought, spread and total. Sort any column, filter by game, and highlight favorites facing low-interception defenses.

added

Receptions stat search + sortable last-game columns NFL

Filter the Receptions board by line and by last game snap %, routes, targets or receptions (min / max). Last game is split into four columns you can sort on.

changed

Scoreboard-style game picker on Matchups and Receptions NFL

Filters now opens the week as scoreboard cards with kickoff, spread and total, records and live/final scores. Click a game to filter the board; clear it with the x on the chip.

added

Game filter on Matchups and Receptions NFL

Both boards gained a game menu (kickoff order) to narrow the view to a single matchup. The selection is kept in the URL and, on Matchups, follows you across the QB / RB / WR / TE tabs.

fixed

Receptions board shows the full slate again NFL

A line-folding bug labelled most Hard Rock main receptions lines as alternates once the alternate ladder was posted, shrinking the Receptions board and the Floor Finder scan to a handful of players. Main and alternate lines are now kept separately and Week 3 is fully populated.

fixed

Floor Finder board alignment NFL

Player badges no longer spill into the Game column on the Floor Finder candidates board, and the Last game and Status columns wrap so the full board fits on screen.

changed

Receptions board: full line-movement history NFL

Each player now carries every Hard Rock Bet quote captured since the line posted. The Line column shows the full path of line changes for the week, and a new Moves column counts every line or price change and expands into a timestamped timeline.

added

Receptions board (Analysis → Receptions) NFL

Scan the Hard Rock Bet receptions market for the current slate in one table: line, over and under prices, last-game usage (snap share, routes, targets, catches), three-game averages, and L3 / L5 / season hit rates at the current line. Filter WR, RB or TE and sort by any column.

added

Floor Finder (shadow mode) NFL

New Models page that scans floor-line receptions props (over 0.5) for players whose recent usage - snaps, routes run, targets - outgrew the role the book priced. Candidates are recorded and graded with closing-line value; the player card shows last game / L3 / L5 usage, every book's price and Pinnacle's implied floor. Probabilities stay hidden until the weekly backtest proves an edge; the first run did not, so the page launches paused while the shadow record builds.

fixed

Tackles model: duplicate picks removed NFL

Picks on the Defensive Tackles board were sometimes listed twice (once locked live, once as an as-of backfill pick) and counted twice in the weekly record. The backfill runner now skips games the live pipeline already locked, and the duplicate rows were voided so Weeks 2 and 3 show one pick per player.

changed

Tackles model board now ordered by kickoff, not edge NFL

Picks on the Defensive Tackles model page are listed by kickoff time, game and player. They were previously ranked by model edge within each game, which the 2023-25 backtest shows is a poor guide: the largest edges were the losing buckets. Nothing about which picks appear has changed, only the order.

changed

Defensive Tackles results: separate Line column NFL

The recent-results table on the tackles model page now shows the sportsbook line in its own column next to the pick, projection and actual.

changed

Defensive Tackles model: opponent tendencies, personnel and PFF alignment NFL

The tackles model now accounts for where an opponent throws the ball (depth of target, middle-of-field and tight-end share, early-down pass rate), its neutral-script pace, how many receivers, tight ends and backs it puts on the field, and the quarterback's time to throw. Each defender also carries PFF alignment (box, slot, corner, deep, line, off-ball), stop rate, missed-tackle rate and tackling grades. The retrained model improved accuracy and calibration on the same holdout and is now live; the help modal describes the new inputs.

added

Player Props: prop card popup NFL

Click any player on the Player Props board to open a card: our projection versus the line, how the model has done on that player, the matchup against the opposing defense, a hit-rate chart with a line you can move (last 5, last 10, season, head-to-head), and every book's line and price. Result cells now show the actual number with a check or cross.

added

Player Props: model accuracy per player and past weeks NFL

Every row on the Player Props board now shows how the model has done on that player this season (hit rate and count, this market and all markets), and once a game is graded the row shows what the player actually did with a hit or miss mark. A week picker in the header opens any earlier board.

changed

Props model: PFF data wired into the feature set NFL

Receiving grades, yards per route run, alignment splits, run-blocking grades and opponent man/zone coverage from PFF now feed the player-props feature set (2022 onward). A column-name mismatch and four unmapped team codes had left those inputs empty. Projections pick the new inputs up once the next weekly retrain is activated.

fixed

Player Props board back online NFL

The props model had stopped capturing Hard Rock lines because its monthly credit guard was counting requests to free data sources as Odds API spend. The guard now uses the usage figure the Odds API reports directly, budget skips are surfaced on the health dashboard, and an overflow that could reject an entire prediction batch is fixed. Week 2 Monday night projections are priced; the week 3 board fills in Wednesday as usual.

added

Matchups board NFL

New Matchups page under Analysis: every QB, RB, WR and TE with a game this week, ranked against the defensive units (and for receivers, the actual cornerbacks) they face. Click a card for the full breakdown, sort by matchup score, filter by team or search by name. Rebuilt every morning as new grades come in.

added

PFF Developer API ingest NFL

PFF player grades and team-game grades now sync automatically from the PFF Developer API into the NFL model data store (2016 to current, refreshed daily), replacing the weekly manual CSV upload. Model-internal data only; nothing PFF-sourced is shown publicly.

changed

NFL site redesign: clean light theme with live scoreboard strip NFL

nfl.gamedayanalytics.net has a new look: a cool light-grey page with white panels, a dark navigation bar with a context breadcrumb, a blue accent, and a single clean typeface throughout. Every public and admin page was restyled to the new palette. A scoreboard ribbon now runs across the top of every page showing the current week's games with kickoff times (CT), market spread and total, season records, live scores while games are in progress, finals afterward, and a pick-count pill for games the game model has plays on. Each cell deep-links into Game Props for that matchup.

changed

NFL dashboard: tool directory NFL

The NFL home page now lists every tool on the site (game picks, player-prop models, Prop Finder, Hit Rate Finder, Game Props, Player Analysis, Players, Team Stats) as quick-link cards above the data-coverage table.

added

Prop Finder: grade players at their own Hard Rock line NFL

New Line source control on the NFL Prop Finder. Book line (Hard Rock), the default for the current season on passing yards/attempts/completions, rushing yards/attempts and receiving yards/receptions, evaluates each player against the line the book is actually posting for his next game and shows it in a sortable Line (HRB) column with prices. Has line today now hides players without a posted line. Custom line keeps the classic one-line search for past seasons, the leaderboard and props with no market.

added

Prop Finder: Prop Insight popup NFL

Click any Prop Finder row (or its new Insight button) for the full picture behind an over/under: current lines at every book with the best price and no-vig fair probability, a projection and hit rates at the exact line (L5, L10, season, prior season, vs. opponent, home/away — every rate shows its sample size), a last-10 game chart with the line drawn, and a checklist of the factors pushing over or under. Probabilities and leans are shown only for markets the weekly backtest has validated against the closing market; otherwise the popup says so instead of guessing. Partial games (under 50% snaps) are excluded by default with a toggle.

fixed

Defensive Tackles model: Week 2 projections restored NFL

Players who changed teams in the offseason were being projected for two games in the same week, which the model's leakage guard refused. Each player is now projected once, for their current team. Week 2 projections are live.

fixed

Defensive Tackles model: rookies and first-time starters NFL

Players with no prior NFL game were being projected as backups regardless of their depth-chart role, which produced confident unders on rookie starters (Jacob Rodriguez: 2.2 projected, 14 actual). The model now uses years of experience, draft position and the published depth chart as priors, and never issues a pick on a defender without real snaps on record. Retrained version activated with better accuracy on held-out weeks.

added

Defensive Tackles model NFL

A new NFL model for the player tackles + assists market. It projects each defender's combined tackles from snap share, tackles per snap, opponent pace and run/pass tendencies, injuries to teammates and game script, turns that into a calibrated over/under probability, and tracks per-player reliability so picks only surface where the model has shown skill. Public picks at /models/tackles once the validation gates clear.

added

Player Props model: QB, RB, WR and TE projections NFL

A new props board at /props projects every eligible player across pass, rush and receiving yardage and counting markets, prices each projection against Hard Rock Bet's most balanced line, and publishes a controlled set of official picks with a fully transparent record, ROI and closing-line value. Picks run in shadow mode for the first weeks while the record accumulates.

added

Props performance and methodology pages NFL

Full transparent performance page (record by week, market, position and edge bucket, calibration, CLV distribution, including losing stretches) and a methodology page explaining lines, no-vig pricing, edges, confidence badges and CLV.

changed

Kickoff weather and richer play-by-play in NFL data NFL

Kickoff-hour weather including barometric pressure for every game since 2021, Next Gen Stats passing and rushing, and additional play-by-play context now feed the NFL models.

added

Hit Rate Finder NFL

New Hit Rate Finder page: set a minimum hit rate, direction, and games threshold to surface every player and prop combination across all positions that clears it — each prop graded at its standard line over the season's completed games. Linked from the Analysis menu.

added

QB Analysis tab on player profiles NFL

QB profile pages gain a QB Analysis tab: pick a season (or all seasons) and an opponent (or all teams) to see hit rate over the QB's current Hard Rock Bet passing-yards line, per-game passing/completion/rushing/TD averages, and a sortable target-distribution table across his pass catchers in those games.

added

Game Props: Rush Attempts market + QB rushing stats NFL

The Game Props page now shows Hard Rock Bet Rush Attempts lines for QBs and RBs alongside Rush Yards, with the same L3/L5/season hit-rate windows and leans. QB stat views (player popup and player profile) now include carries and rushing yards.

added

Game Props: player popups and prop history NFL

Click a player's name on Game Props to open their full profile — now with a Prop Stats tab showing every closing line they've faced, what they actually did, and their over/under record by market (L5, L10, and per season). Or click anywhere on a player's row for a quick popup with Season Stats, Game Log, Career, and Prop Stats.

changed

Game Props: QB pass attempts and completions NFL

Quarterbacks on the Game Props page now show Hard Rock Bet lines for pass attempts and completions in addition to passing and rushing yards — with the same L3/L5/season hit rates and over/under leans, and eligible for the Best Props rail.

changed

Game Props: Hard Rock Bet lines + Best Props at a glance NFL

Game Props now shows Hard Rock Bet lines only, adds L3 and L5 recent-form hit rates next to the season numbers, and gives every prop an over/under lean. A new Best Props rail at the top of each game ranks the strongest leans across both teams.

added

Game Props page NFL

Pick any game on the weekly schedule to see player props for every QB, RB, WR, and TE at the most balanced book line (closest to -110 on both sides), with hit rates vs that line for this season and last. Game cards show live scores during games and finals afterward. Find it under Analysis > Game Props.

changed

Game Model admin navigation NFL

The NFL admin sidebar now includes a Game Model section linking to all eight game-line model admin pages.

added

Game Model external ranking comparison NFL

The admin power rankings can now be compared against outside sources — ESPN FPI refreshes automatically each week, and editorial rankings can be pasted in — with disagreements of five or more spots highlighted.

changed

Game Model pages reorganized NFL

Power rankings and the methodology write-up moved off the public site into the admin dashboard; the public game-model pages are now Picks, History, and Performance.

added

Game Model odds backfill report (Phase 8) NFL

A new report maps historical odds coverage gap by gap and prices what filling them would cost, so historical line data can be backfilled deliberately instead of blindly.

added

Game Model refinement loop (Phase 7) NFL

The game model now audits itself weekly: a refinement report analyzes residuals, injury-designation accuracy, and parameter sensitivity, and proposes tuning changes that can be applied as versioned, fully-audited parameter patches.

added

Game Model admin controls (Phase 6) NFL

Every number the game model uses is now editable from the admin panel with full change history and rollback — positional values, injury probabilities, situational adjustments, home-field advantage, stadiums, and per-player manual overrides — plus one-click recompute and report downloads.

added

Game Model public launch (Phase 5) NFL

Five new public pages on the NFL site: weekly game picks (spread, total, moneyline with edge tiers and units), power rankings with expandable player values, full pick history with CSV export, a performance dashboard, and the model methodology.

added

Game Model backtest and grading (Phase 4) NFL

The NFL game model has been backtested walk-forward across five seasons with honest, calibrated bet pricing, and every published pick now gets graded automatically against the final score and the closing line.

added

Game Model line engine (Phase 3) NFL

The NFL game model now prices every game: model spread, total and moneyline from team ratings, home field, rest/travel/situational spots, weather, and player-level injury impacts — all against a key-number-aware margin distribution built from a decade of results.

added

Game Model power ratings (Phase 2) NFL

Every NFL team now carries a decomposed power rating — efficiency, roster (every player on the depth chart has a visible point value), and market-implied — computed weekly back to 2021.

added

Game Model foundation (Phase 1) NFL

Laid the groundwork for the upcoming NFL game-line model: every model parameter (blend weights, injury pricing, situational adjustments, home-field advantage, stadium data) now lives in a versioned, admin-editable store with a full change history.

fixed

PFF Upload drop zone alignment NFL

Fixed the drag-and-drop area on the PFF Upload admin page overlapping the season/week controls.

added

WR Prop Model NFL

New machine-learning model projecting weekly receiving yards and receptions lines for every team's top wide receivers, with probability-priced edges against sportsbook props, agreement flags vs the sharp market, automatic post-game grading, and closing-line-value tracking. Live at /wr-model on the NFL site.

added

Expanded NFL data pipeline NFL

Nightly ingest now covers the full play-by-play feed, snap counts, injury reports, depth charts, Next Gen Stats receiving metrics, and a league-wide player ID crosswalk (2021-present, fully backfilled).

added

NFL player prop odds capture NFL

Hourly sportsbook prop snapshots (receiving yards, receptions, receiving TDs) with closing-line marking and a three-season historical closing-line backfill powering model calibration and CLV grading.

added

Player Analysis: instant player search NFL

Type a few letters in the new Player Search box to find any QB, RB, WR, or TE by name — no need to pick a position first. Selecting a player loads their analysis and sets the position automatically.

changed

Player Analysis now covers RB, WR, and TE NFL

The QB vs Team Defense page grew into Player Analysis: pick any QB, RB, WR, or TE and analyze them against a chosen defense with position-tailored stats, over/under hit rates, a threshold ladder, and the full game log. QBs keep their play-by-play target distribution. Old /qb-analysis links redirect to the new page.

added

QB vs Team Defense Analysis NFL

Analyze any QB against a chosen defense (or the whole league): over/under hit rates at your threshold, per-receiver target distribution built from play-by-play data, a threshold ladder, and every historical matchup. Find it under Analysis → QB Analysis.

changed

Prop Finder leaderboard and slate filters NFL

Added an All Props leaderboard that ranks every prop at a standard line by hit rate (including an ALL-positions board), a game-date selector that binds results to that day's slate with matchups and kickoff times (CT), and a Not Started filter that hides games already underway.

added

Prop Finder NFL

New Analysis section with a Prop Finder for NFL props: choose a season (2021-2025), position (QB/RB/WR/TE/K), prop, line, and direction to see every player's Season / L3 / L5 hit rates against that line, with game-by-game logs, a playoffs toggle, home/away splits, and usage filters.

added

Team statistics viewer NFL

New Team Stats page under Stats & Data: offensive, defensive, and combined league tables for any season (2021-2025) or single week, with sortable columns, live ranking, and top-8/bottom-8 color grading. Powered by nflverse weekly team stat lines plus final scores.

added

Player stats browser and player profiles NFL

New Stats & Data section on the NFL site: browse season-by-season player stats with search, position, team, and minimum-games filters — columns adapt to the selected position. Click any player for a full profile with season summaries, sortable game logs, and career totals covering 2021-2025.

added

NFL data engine is live NFL

nfl.gamedayanalytics.net launched with five seasons of historical NFL data (2021-2025) — every game, weekly roster, and player stat line from nflverse — plus the complete 2026 schedule, syncing nightly. Prop research tools and models arrive ahead of the 2026 season.